SUPERSTRATEGY – probabilistically optimised, frontier-forecasted decisions.

Question: Will AI-enabled cyber-defensive capabilities be assessed as broadly keeping pace with offensive capabilities as of 1 Jan 30?

Resolves: TRUE if the NCSC / AISI / International AI Safety Report assesses the offence-defence balance as roughly even at the date; FALSE if it assesses offence as clearly ahead.

Question: Will a UK or other major-country government body issue formal guidance or regulation addressing AI companion apps' effects on minors before 1 Jan 31?

Resolves: TRUE if such formal government action is issued before the date; otherwise FALSE.

Why it resolved: China’s CAC and four other government bodies promulgated the “Interim Measures for the Administration of Artificial Intelligence Anthropomorphic Interactive Services,” effective 2026-07-15, covering AI emotional companionship/support services and imposing minor-specific rules including bans on virtual intimate relationship services for minors and minor-mode protections: https://www.cac.gov.cn/2026-04/10/c_1777558395078289.htm. Xinhua reported on 2026-07-15 that China rolled out regulations to curb emotional dependency on AI companion bots: https://english.news.cn/20260715/4bf39cb3c4db42babc10ed37932cfd94/c.html.

Question: Will the combined annual capital expenditure of the largest US hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta) exceed US$500 billion in a single calendar year before 1 Jan 28?

Resolves: TRUE if combined FY capex for those firms exceeds $500bn in any calendar year before the date, per earnings reports; otherwise FALSE.

Question: Will a frontier general-purpose model achieve a material error or hallucination rate below 1% across at least three routine professional domains before 1 Jan 31?

Resolves: Will resolve as true if, by 01 Jan 31, an independent evaluation body, or a peer-reviewed evaluation replicated by an independent team, reports a below-1% material error or hallucination rate across at least three routine professional domains. It will otherwise resolve as false.